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Wednesday, 9 September 2009

Should an incoming Conservative government ...

Tim Montgomerie asks whether an incoming Conservative government would wish to consider the following:
Will candour from the Conservatives now hurt the Tories’ chances at the next election or actually convince voters that David Cameron is more than a PR man? More significantly will a clear mandate be a vital protection for a Tory government from voter anger at pain caused by fiscal tightening?
Candour (if that's what it truly is - and not just PR spin) won't hurt Cameron's chances. But if he fails to promise a referendum, regardless of the Lisbon Treaty's ratification, he won't have a large majority.
Will the economy be faltering again by the middle of 2010 or will it be robust enough to absorb a big fiscal contraction?
The economy will be out of recession when growth is positive for more than one quarter. Labour's problem is that jobs will continue to be lost well into 2011. The public largely blames Labour for causing it (or making it worse), so they can't expect good news on the economy to benefit their election chances.
Should the government concentrate fiscal pain in a three or four year window (cutting spending AND raising taxes) – offering release at the following election – or spread the pain over a longer period?
Definitely - provided that it ensures that the taxpayer is kept informed of exactly why it is necessary, at every turn. If it does not, Labour will blame the Tories for the results Labour's destructive policies. It should also remind the electorate of the benefits that will ensue and continually update a timeline for tax decreases, as and when it becomes possible to do so. All such data should be made available online.
Should the Conservatives abandon the commitment to make offsetting cuts in other taxes in return for increases in green taxation? The commitment to offset green taxes was, after all, made in happier economic times.
Absolutely. Cameron should do everything in his power to reduce government spending and slash red tape for budding entrepreneurs - from the ground up. This is not the time for tax increases on global warming, which most people see as bogus, anyway.
Will the need to raise taxes be used as an opportunity to reform and simplify the tax system or will taxes like VAT go up crudely?
Putting up VAT would be stupid - it would hit those on lower incomes the hardest. Instead, Cameron should raise the PAYE threshold to the equivalent of the minimum wage (at least £7,000 pa) and simultaneously drop a swathe of tax credits. The tax credit system is too complicated and is an unnecessary expense; the state takes with one hand and gives with the other. Ridiculous.

If Cameron raises green taxes, he's in for a fight with the electorate unless it represents a demonstrable increase in the standard of living of all. Most of us would love to install solar panels etc., but cannot, because they are prohibitively expensive. Why not remove VAT from such products to encourage their take-up?
Should Cameron appoint Lord Adonis, Frank Field, David Laws and other moderates from Labour and the Liberal Democrats to his government? This would potentially strengthen his own team and diminish his opposition.
Yes to Frank Field and David Davis. They are widely respected.
Will the possibility of ‘brownouts’ mean more burning of coal and less worrying about climate change?
Why not get rid of "smoke-free" designations, encourage people to reinstate their fireplaces and create their own brickettes from waste paper? That would mean less of it goes to landfill.

Could we not use technology to deal with the resultant smoke - some sort of filter/smoke-conversion device? Could we not utilise the heat from fireplaces to assist in the heating of domestic water? Would this not spawn a raft of new industries?
What can a new Conservative government do to keep his core voters happy without spending money?
Repeal swathes of draconian legislation implemented over the last 12 years, starting with:

Crime (International Co-operation) Act;
Anti-Social Behaviour Act;
Courts Act;
Extradition Act;
Sexual Offences Act;
Criminal Justice Act.
If there are terrorist incidents under a Conservative government will David Cameron regret agreeing to the Davis/Grieve agenda on civil liberties?
Cameron should get the threat of terrorism in proportion. Most of us do not feel threatened by it. Davis's views are widely held.
Are we all resigned to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons or is the possibility of Israel striking Iran and/or a nuclear arms race across the Middle East too horrific to contemplate?
Does anyone buy into the notion of Iran being a terrorist threat, rather than an it having oild resources which the UK and US covet?

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